Can Trump and Putin work together to bring peace to the Middle East?
This is going to sound far out but I think that Assad’s blunder may help Trump to restore U.S. credibility and actually to begin solving the problems of the Middle East with, and this will sound crazy, with Russia’s help.
The theory is based on an analysis I’ve been making over a number of years of Russia’s geo-strategic interests. In a word without going into the details, which I’ll be happy to provide if anyone desires, Russia overarching objective is to become a world oil hegemon that supplies both Europe and Asia. They can’t claim industrial prowess but being an oil hegemon would satisfy Putin’s dreams of grandeur. Confirmation of Russia's current influence over the Middle East, or at least the northern tier of countries in that region, would be a big step for them.
Okay, I’ve also written about how a good solution for the problems of the Middle East would be to breakdown Iraq and Syria into four countries: (1) an Alawite/Shia country in the Western part of Syria; (2) a Shia Iraq in the southern part of that country; (3) Kurdistan (they are Sunni) with chunks of northern Iraq and Syria; and (4) a Sunni country in the territory currently controlled by ISIS.
Over the last couple of years I’ve explained why I believe Iran wants to control the territory that runs from Iran to the Mediterranean through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. I’ve also explained why ISIS, while not directly controlled by Saudi Arabia, is actually an instrument of the Arabs to keep Iran from achieving that objective.
The holdouts will of course be Iraq, Iran and Turkey, all for obvious reasons but in the end the arrangement will be for four countries with more homogeneous and natural ethnic and religious inclinations, and therefore more governable.
Okay, Russia, what about them? I believe that Russia can help bring Iran to the negotiating table, as well as have influence over Turkey. The U.S. can help deliver the Arabs, and, together with Russia, Turkey. Obviously it won’t be easy but working with, instead of against, Russia can make a scheme like that more doable. That’s why I believe that Trump has been trying to stay friendly with Russia.
I further believe that Trump was told by Henry Kissinger, a master geo-strategist with whom Trump has met with at least three times since last May, that Russia could hold the key to a lasting solution in the Middle East.
So what would Russia get? Russia would get a confirmation of the influence it has managed to get in the Middle East thanks to Obama having withdrawn the U.S. from that region. We would just accept the current status quo. That’s all but for Russia it is a dream they’ve had for centuries.
If I am right, expect that the next thing Trump will be talking about is a safe zone in parts of the Syrian territory currently controlled by ISIS, a safe zone that in time would slowly grow into the new Sunni country, mostly in the south of Syria.
Remember that Trump likes to think big and nothing could be bigger!
Already the more perceptive and objective media is reporting that there seem to be two tracks to the Russian reaction to the attack on Syria; one is the normal superficial aggressive rhetoric for public consumption, and the other a much more measured behind the scenes exchange. Moreover, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is traveling to Moscow next week. In fact the attack on Syria is in some ways made to order to get negotiations started on the grander strategy above that I believe is behind the whole thing.